Kevin Rudd "Put yourself in China's shoes before dealing with China... D...

Kevin Rudd "Put yourself in China's shoes before dealing with China... Deal with N. Korea ...
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ARIRANG NEWS
Published on Dec 12, 2017

케빈 러드 전 호주총리 "중국을 대할 땐 상대에 대한 이해가 먼저... 북한과 쌍중단은 6자회담 틀 안에서"

  Staying with the liberal leader's state visit to Beijing.
There's a number topics to address.
Priority will be placed on North Korea issues.
Our Moon Connyoung turned to Kevin Rudd, the former prime minister of Australia, and a longtime China expert... for his take on ways to draw support from President Xi Jinping in managing the situation. 
  Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of Australia and currently President of Asia Society. Thank you for agreeing to speak to us today.

   Great to be back in the ROK.


  I want to start by asking for your assessment of the current situation on the Korean peninsula. You've said the possibility of a military conflict on the Korean peninsula is up from a 5% from your previous estimate to maybe 25%.



Historically, it's always been around 5%.  That is, something could happen.  I think what's changed materially is the rapid nature of the progress of the North Korean nuclear program.  And secondly, because you begin to cross American red lines about what they can tolerate in terms of the ICBM risks to themselves.  There is a form of unilateral U.S. military action against the North.  I don't think we can rule that possibility out.  In fact I think it's a growing possibility, but not a probability.

  You've looked at this issue from many angles for many, many years, in many different positions.  In the interest of the great clich?, 'Never waste a great crisis', what are some dynamics that need to change here?

 I think one of the key challenges in dealing with North Korean nuclear weapons program is, how do you make it clear to our Chinese friends that there are real opportunities, which proceed from this current difficulty?  Can you turn the armistice into a peace treaty?  Can you also look at credible, external security guarantees, by the Chinese, by the Russians, by the Americans, for the future of the North Korean regime?  Can you even long term with all these things, look at a beginning of a reduction in the U.S. military presences on the peninsula?  I regard all those things as opportunities for China.

  Speaking of China, South Korean President Moon Jae-in will be sitting down with his Chinese counterpart in Beijing.  The U.S. and South Korea have been pressing China to more to rein in North Korea.  But some have begun casting doubt on how much leverage China actually has over North Korea, or more importantly, how much are they willing to use that leverage?