Dollar Liquidity Crisis: The End Game for China (w/ Brian McCarthy)

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Dollar Liquidity Crisis: The End Game for China (w/ Brian McCarthy)
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Real Vision Finance
327K subscribers
China is one of biggest debt bubbles in the world, so why haven't we seen a credit crisis yet? Brian McCarthy, chief strategist at Macrolens, makes his Real Vision debut to dissect the structure of the Chinese banking system and to examine the probabilities of a full-blown financial meltdown. McCarthy walks through why he believes Chinese economic growth will continue to deteriorate and explains the dollar shortage through Mundell's framework of the impossible trinity. He then argues that China is on a path towards self-decoupling from the rest of the world, similar to that of North Korea. He notes why the Chinese Yuan will continue to weaken and considers the near-term ramifications from Hong Kong and the trade war. Filmed on November 13, 2019 in New York.

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Dollar Liquidity Crisis: The End Game for China (w/ Brian McCarthy)
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15


Crazy Ant
Crazy Ant
5 months ago
Get your money out of China!!!  The rich Chinese have already started to do so.

199


Urs Odermatt
Urs Odermatt
5 months ago
you would be crazy investing in china.

111


Vikram Razdan
Vikram Razdan
1 month ago
China's financial system is a state sponsored "ponzi" scheme

88


M Riss
M Riss
5 months ago
Excellent!  This guy has the most complete grasp of the big picture that I've heard about China!

100


Albert Moore
Albert Moore
3 weeks ago
"Will Xi Jinping's endgame fail?" Yep.

11


Tom Hermens
Tom Hermens
1 month ago
So, foreign companies should get out of China. Sinking ship.

40


劉和鑫
劉和鑫
1 month ago
I am watching this video after coronavirus outbreak.

62


Michael Y
Michael Y
5 months ago
Great analysis by Brian McCarthy!!  I want to hear more from him.

67


Reynaldo Luna Jr.
Reynaldo Luna Jr.
1 week ago
Communists they decide who eats and who starves.

4


Ale Sh
Ale Sh
5 months ago
A rolling loan gathers no loss .... Kyle Bass.

115


Jeff Sutthoff
Jeff Sutthoff
5 months ago
China:  This “ponzi dynamic”, tell me more...

73


Tamara Harris
Tamara Harris
2 weeks ago
Whatever happens to China now, it deserves. Leave China in the rearview mirror.

8


bud Mccaff
bud Mccaff
1 month ago
This was made 3 months ago.. When the CCP Coronavirus started... Perfect timing r ccp w blame virus

18


4lly0ur8as3
4lly0ur8as3
5 months ago
I like that concept of "being broke" but owning 6 or 7 apartments...

17


Lennon Richardson
Lennon Richardson
5 months ago
"If the largest trading nation in the world is centrally planed, you can not have them deeply integrated in to global trade and finance, and have a market economy globally"  30:43

24


Alorand
Alorand
5 months ago
Ponzi dynamic is right!
Investing in China is great until you try to get your $ returns out.

52


nancy kurtz
nancy kurtz
5 months ago
Ya...I’m not sure there is a word in mandarin for fiduciary....

42


Southern Boy
Southern Boy
4 weeks ago
1:15
Brian McCarthy: "China doesn't want something to grow that they cannot control"
CCPVirus: "Hold my beer".

5


Nelly Farnsworth
Nelly Farnsworth
1 month ago
ALL China ASSETS WORLDWIDE MUST BE FROZEN.
AND PLEDGED TO LAWSUITS WORLDWIDE 🌎.

9


TONY CARVALHO
TONY CARVALHO
5 months ago
Just a fool can trust china!

17


itloads
itloads
5 months ago (edited)
This is like watching The Big Short in 2006.

56


Anri the non-aggressive animal
Anri the non-aggressive animal
1 month ago
It's funny you mention Bloomberg since they were just found to be curtailing their news to fit China's narrative and not upset them.

6


Curious
Curious
5 months ago
And we sent our manufacturing to China with zero tax offshore incentives because, why? And those that did it still represent America. And you want to impeach President Trump?

79


Jing Tu
Jing Tu
5 months ago
I love your work! Keep it up!

27


ballistichydrant
ballistichydrant
2 months ago
Wow. Looking back over the last 3 months, now mid March, he pretty much nailed everything!

7


Aj Leigh
Aj Leigh
5 months ago
Absolutely amazing and insightful informative. 🙏🏻

8


Nelly Farnsworth
Nelly Farnsworth
4 weeks ago
China MUST PAY REPARATIONS.

5


Dave Farnsworth
Dave Farnsworth
3 weeks ago
Now we can secure all the debt that China hold over USA to repay the loses for CCP virus.

4


Billy Jackson
Billy Jackson
1 month ago
My guess after Corona China and the rest of the world will have a much different relationship if not WAR!.

13


rick couture
rick couture
1 month ago
when the current situation rolls through ,many countries will start acting in self interest, an unbalanced balance sheet will become unthinkable. the need for local production or trade with countries that reciprocate, may become a need just to survive?   welcome to 2020

5


Ron Cernokur
Ron Cernokur
5 months ago (edited)
I hear they love World Bank...............and the annual loans they receive of 1.5 Billion per year.   And they have a CCP person in a powerful position at the bank.  How Nice.

20


Thor Hamm
Thor Hamm
5 months ago
And Google and Microsoft are dealing with China now. It's called 5G. So, Microsoft and Google are now inline with China.

21


The Farmers Daughter
The Farmers Daughter
5 months ago
Trump is dancing with Canada and Mexico. China blew it.

18


Footstepsinchina
Footstepsinchina
4 months ago (edited)
Unfortunately, war is how dictators try to solve there failures....Beijing was supposed to take back (invade if necessary) Taiwan next year, Trump and HK have changed things.

4


Xin Zhang
Xin Zhang
5 months ago
Trump is going to delay the tariff before 15th, that is my bet. I will long gold if the news was released.

16


Merlin Geikie
Merlin Geikie
4 months ago
There is a vast queue of wealthy Chinese, the smartest and the best educated, who are increasingly desperate to leave, what seems very much to be, a ship, where the Captain, is reading a compass, where the needle has been restrained.
Really not if, but when..............
OR
The CCP abdicates and hands Hong Kong style freedoms to the whole of China.
This would be a momentous win for the globe.

9


Ale Sh
Ale Sh
5 months ago (edited)
11:07: Interesting that HKMA(?) might be providing PRC’s SAFE with information on HK’s USD holdings. This could constitute an assault on HK SAR’s autonomy, probably sufficient to trigger a review under the US HK Democracy and Human Rights Act?

13


bami coffee
bami coffee
5 months ago
Open your eyes to check what's really going on there...

20


David Chorak
David Chorak
5 months ago
The end of the CCP mafia is written in the stars.

31


Z ESDS
Z ESDS
1 month ago
"... when the shadow bankings are no longer working for CCP... it's done with PRC and PLA...
... by then cash is king again...!"

EUDS

2


Brennen Cox
Brennen Cox
5 months ago
8:47 I think i experienced that... my desired outflow being restricted by inflows.

8


ExtraordinaryLiving
ExtraordinaryLiving
5 months ago (edited)
4:06



King Miura
King Miura
5 months ago
NO TRADE WITH COMMIES.

63


Devon Rusinek
Devon Rusinek
4 months ago
It's going to be very interesting to see what Chinese monetary policy looks like in the next 5 years.

8


test
test
5 months ago
very insightful.
thanks for sharing the conversation with brian.

3


existentialvoid
existentialvoid
5 months ago
Spot on

10


Karl P
Karl P
5 months ago
The bottom line is that China needs ever-increasing exports to get the dollars and euros (specifically) in because of the huge internal debt and the fact their currency is not internationally convertible. Who wants to be paid in RMB?  It's OK to fob off the locals with RMB but China's huge import requirements need hard currency. So they are incredibly vulnerable to even the slightest downturn in exports due to tariffs. In any "trade war" China loses.

17


Don II
Don II
5 months ago
As he said the ccp is clamping down on capital outflow. Whatever rich chinese took out of china happened few years back when real estate prices in usa canada australia boomed, now it is tapering off thus you see downtrend and  and those same people are losing money as real estate prices dropped and stuck with no buyers, one hear it everyday. With fed reserve repo printing to a tune of 2 trillions in just 2 months and still not helping it cause a snowball effects many banks NPL is sky rocketing, repo money to the banks is disappering in bottomless pit, all banks are going to be dragged along if a few go under as they are all interdependant, meanwhile repo printing to rescue the banks cannot be stopped and fed has no choice but to keep on printing, the only choice is global reset else it is just the fed kicking the can down the road. So this guy is really consoling himself hoping china's plan will not succed, but nothing is certain.

21


Sonny Zheng
Sonny Zheng
4 months ago
Well, this is depressing...Thanks. Why am I watching this on a Sunday morning?

1


Anthony Dickenson
Anthony Dickenson
5 months ago
That was awesome. Thanks

5


Stephen Randolph
Stephen Randolph
4 days ago
If CCP sells off its US Treasury Bonds then they have start selling off there Gold and silver ! That's why they don't want to do that.

1


Albion Parrot
Albion Parrot
2 weeks ago
Is McCarthy interviewing himself?

1


Kaiwen Zhao
Kaiwen Zhao
4 months ago
06:48 for my note of the explanation of capital control in China.

1


Rocky Balboa
Rocky Balboa
1 week ago
Wow, this interview is before COVID19 got bad. One wonders what Mr. McCarthy's dire predictions would be now.

1


Max Data
Max Data
5 months ago
Youtube destroys freedom of expression!

6


Thomas Kauser
Thomas Kauser
5 months ago
I am Spartacus! (I realize that the federal reserve chairman after  being  neutered by rusty Kool-Aid now has to enter the colosseum to face down lions of the shadow banking hero's the ....hedge funds?
If he even hints of giving up or slowing down the bail out .......?

2


the CCP CORONAVIRUS lies
the CCP CORONAVIRUS lies
5 months ago
XI-JINGPIG WILL BE A CRISPY ROASTED HOG  !



Gaudenz Gaudenz
Gaudenz Gaudenz
5 months ago
THIS GUY reallllly knows his stuff ✅👍🏻

6


Mr. Smith
Mr. Smith
5 months ago
China..The worlds biggest PONZI scheme.........

5


M0lecular Ep1phany
M0lecular Ep1phany
5 months ago
Buy the dip. Buy American. 👁🤙🏻

2


William
William
5 months ago
Just like Winnie the Pooh, no concept of what happens after the honey runs out.

12


james higgins
james higgins
5 months ago
I heard what he said, there is no spoon... 23 trillion more chips in play

1


Charlie Brown
Charlie Brown
4 months ago
GREAT VIDEO!!!



friedrich nietzsche
friedrich nietzsche
2 months ago
But China is a Country with two faces? The Government is a “red”, ( Communism ), and System is a
Capitalism, Greed and Profit, with Slavery&Workers!!!

2


Robert Sao
Robert Sao
2 weeks ago
China should be banned from international stage for their coronavirus spreads.

2


DFSS- Systems-Expert
DFSS- Systems-Expert
5 months ago
hammers and chips...

2


kjkgood
kjkgood
5 months ago
tremendous depth here very solid

2


Scott Albers
Scott Albers
5 months ago (edited)
Fantastic analysis.
"The numbers are getting really big. ... This whole policy structure of fighting this Impossible Trinity and stimulating every time that growth slows is at a dead end." 23:58 to 24:40

1


rick couture
rick couture
1 month ago
when the big rats start leaving the ship, is it a sign???



ABDOUL AZIZ HASSANA
ABDOUL AZIZ HASSANA
5 months ago
Thank you

1


Anri the non-aggressive animal
Anri the non-aggressive animal
1 month ago
I hope everyone who invested in China pays for it.

13


Idah Idah
Idah Idah
4 months ago
Pride goes before destruction....
Pride destroy everything...

1


Dan Smith
Dan Smith
5 months ago
China's massive mismanagement / misleadership ballooned in 2019. Even they admit it. Then went from appearing unstoppable to corrupt, evil, abusers whom many are standing up to the paper tiger bully. China announced itself as Americas enemy. A total lack of gratefulness to the one that permitted its rise - America., via, technology, market access and massive investments, protected peaceful sea lanes.

China is fundamentally acting in bad faith. Most see it now. It's a fragile BS'er, not a monolith. Anywhere but China.

15


Frank Jin
Frank Jin
5 months ago
Well....trump did roll back tariff, he needs a small trade “victory” to secure a real victory in 2020

8


ken teh
ken teh
5 months ago
Great Global Financial crisis seem to originate from USA

2


Jim Franklin
Jim Franklin
5 months ago
great interview! thx

3


b. griffin
b. griffin
5 months ago (edited)
27:00 interesting in light of Trump just folding (allegedly). 🤔



Reprogramming Mind
Reprogramming Mind
1 day ago
Tesla in China might become a dead battery.



Charles Grady
Charles Grady
5 months ago
another hand flapper

3


C D
C D
5 months ago
They can print paper money and buy real goods

2


NFK2Killer
NFK2Killer
5 months ago
The roll back on tariffs was just announced.

3


Nelly Farnsworth
Nelly Farnsworth
4 weeks ago
When the Titanic (CHINA)  is SINKING.  TIME to get into to a LIFEBOAT (PULL ALL DOLLARS & FACTORIES OUT).

1


HachiZenki
HachiZenki
5 months ago
They help institutional investors better understand what's going on in China?  You need a consulting firm to 'better understand' massive fraud?

5


Dan Reynolds
Dan Reynolds
1 month ago
China and House of Mirrors are synonymous.

1


Martin Thornhill
Martin Thornhill
1 month ago
Does this video inadvertently  explain how China's "accidental" release of SARS-COV-2 was so timed?  Working through the numbers, might patient zero have been dated 20-30 Nov 2019?

9


lili shyta
lili shyta
5 months ago
How globalization is working so far? For sustainability of the world, or big sharks exploiting?

1


zomgneedaname
zomgneedaname
4 months ago
战略忽悠局同志好



Henrijs Eglitis
Henrijs Eglitis
5 months ago
Interesting view of how economics and geopolitics work out. It appears there might happen greater volatility in markets when central planning loses its grasp.. of global trade before system/"chain" will show it's true "face".

6


Andreas Larsson
Andreas Larsson
5 months ago
Great video!!

1


passerby
passerby
5 months ago
The correct question should be will you work harder yourselves to try to catch up, not hoping for your opponent to fail. Have some sportsmanship please!!!

1


Merle Charge
Merle Charge
1 month ago
Fantastic....thank you



b. griffin
b. griffin
5 months ago
31:30 EU is not going to decouple from china in light of the difficulty the US has had in convincing them to decouple from Iran.

2


NomadicThought80
NomadicThought80
4 months ago
I am new to macroeconomy at this level, researching what might be happening in 2020 in the context of personal investment. I think I have understood about 50% of what Mr McCarthy was talking about but nevertheless I do love how precise and clear the guy is.

Thanks for great clip

2


Philippe Poe
Philippe Poe
5 months ago
All participating to investments in china shall be seen as corrupted traitors.

7


Enrique Salgado
Enrique Salgado
3 weeks ago
Excellent interview. Brian McCarthy is SO knowledgeable, insightful, and articulate. I learned a LOT. I'll surely look for more material from Real Vision Finance and Brian. Thank you so much for this video!



Don Sarceno
Don Sarceno
4 months ago
i cant wait china to be divided into another smaller nations...they feared democracy in Taiwan because it might ignite revolution for democracy in China....


sorry for being off topic..

2


Michele Esquilin
Michele Esquilin
3 weeks ago
End 5g and all technology game over get rid of the encryption, spying and all robbery of communist parties and USA communist politics



choices4good
choices4good
1 month ago
Wow! This is incredible forensic economic analysis! I didn't even know or think this kind of information was available. Thank you so much. This makes me want to subscribe to your very aptly named "Real Vision" Finance.



TWO CENTS ARMY
TWO CENTS ARMY
5 months ago
Keep feeding the beast 👹👿😈🤓

1


h2s
h2s
1 month ago
China washes digital counterfeit currency in western real estate and businesses

1


Maverick
Maverick
5 months ago
China has been gaming over since ancient times

27


Daniel Lawson
Daniel Lawson
5 months ago
Peter Zeihan's predictions seem more and more likely

4


Adam Post
Adam Post
5 months ago
fantastic video.  thanks for sharing RVF.

3


JB
JB
5 months ago
How do they Keep Acquiring Gold the way that they do then ?

1


Jonathan Brown
Jonathan Brown
2 days ago
Sounds as if China has it sorted and the west is in chaos...the Fed will buy anything to save its bacon



Saeed Mustapha
Saeed Mustapha
5 months ago
It's amazing how these pundits view China and yet American investors can't wait to invest in China. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

2


heltengundersen
heltengundersen
5 months ago
Of course China will get information about foreign bank accounts for every person and company in China!  This is the CRS dictated by EU and OECD!

1


Vincent Bernardino
Vincent Bernardino
1 month ago
Great video. I hope Brian can comment on how the Corona virus pandemic affect the situation on Chinese economy?



Thomas Kauser
Thomas Kauser
5 months ago
Give me more Euro dollars or your banking system will crumble!

3


DM PL
DM PL
3 weeks ago
it's interesting to watch this video after the virus breakout. The trade war will be restarted this summer and RMB looks like very weak.



Brennen Cox
Brennen Cox
5 months ago
24:23 if "they goose housing" they will infuriate their populace... Imagine Tiananmen square times 1 billion...   For the common PRC citizen, domestic housing is the only 'reliable' investment they can make... since the PRC stock market is not much better than a casino

1


Scott Jaehne
Scott Jaehne
4 months ago
a very insightful commentary



D EL
D EL
5 months ago
Yes... it'll fail miserably

5


P P
P P
1 month ago
clearvision



Willwork4 XRP
Willwork4 XRP
3 months ago
They will devalue investments, then buy them back for $.20 on the dollar.

1


Zhu Bajie
Zhu Bajie
5 months ago
Anyang about a year ago looked like a ghost city with its dozens of failed high rises of sunk capital with no return. They are investing just like the U.S. has over and over housing at to high a price point for the average worker to add their wages to the economy by using that infrastructure and housing.

1


Peter Hsieh
Peter Hsieh
2 months ago
GREAT STORY AND HAVE THIS DONE IN HOLLYWOOD.



1⃣ 31
1⃣ 31
5 months ago
Everything is okay, nothing is wrong...take every moment and enjoy your life as you see fit

4


Rajeev Kamalasanan
Rajeev Kamalasanan
5 months ago
Their doom is almost near!

3


Corey Trevor
Corey Trevor
5 months ago
ODL on demand liquidity interledger protocol. Internet of value, interoperability.XRP the standard.
To the lifeboats.

1


PAW PALS
PAW PALS
5 months ago
China is working their feudal economy 😂😂😂

21


Nem Gam Boi
Nem Gam Boi
1 month ago
they won GG



Johnny
Johnny
1 week ago
The end of China?!  Hahaha  . You may take your degree and shut it you know were.



Emmanuel Tsilipakos
Emmanuel Tsilipakos
4 weeks ago
in other words the chinese goverment is consisting of crooks and swindlers

3


Patricia Sarto
Patricia Sarto
1 month ago
Now the ccp has bigger problems!

1


najib madadi
najib madadi
4 months ago
Yes China keep going brother



Gilbert Phillips
Gilbert Phillips
1 month ago
Batan down the hatches and get off that one its going down !

1


Jack T
Jack T
5 months ago
To be fair China is learning from the best.

5


friedrich nietzsche
friedrich nietzsche
2 months ago
Who help USA to living? The Chinas Credits!!!



fengkuang yu
fengkuang yu
5 months ago
Yeah, statement like this fit well for someone’s taste!

5


DFSS- Systems-Expert
DFSS- Systems-Expert
3 months ago
lk at the camera man



Robby Robbins
Robby Robbins
5 months ago
They’re playing the long game

1


Stephen Marshall
Stephen Marshall
1 week ago
This was a rothchilds FED broadcast aint aint China more BS



Ron Arts
Ron Arts
5 months ago
"China is one of biggest debt bubbles in the world". What are the others?

3


Bigjoe99
Bigjoe99
5 months ago
Controlling bankruptcy is a legitimate way to wall of and limit bank losses and financial contagion.



tim howard
tim howard
1 month ago
Wats this a convoluted video for those who already understand finance?



Mikey F
Mikey F
1 month ago
I wonder how this lockdown and new policies change this forecast and playing field?



Random Person
Random Person
5 months ago
Gordon Chang is that you?

6


Neveryou Mind
Neveryou Mind
5 months ago
The questioner sounds like Shelley Zhang.