The Trap: China and the US Map Their Future

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The Trap: China and the US Map Their Future
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Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Streamed live on Oct 13, 2017
Sparta and Athens grew toward a conflict that neither wanted – what Graham Allison calls Thucydides’s Trap. Named for the classical Greek historian, Thucydides’s Trap describes the structural stresses that result when a rising power threatens to displace a ruling one. The looming question is whether China’s rise and the fear it instills in America will result in war between the great powers. With tensions rising on nearly all of China’s borders, new leadership priorities in Washington, and historic government transition set to happen after Beijing’s 19th National Congress, the foundation for conflict or coordination is in many ways being set right now. Will the intertwined economies of the China and the US stave off Thucydides’s Trap, or is this all just a little bit of history repeating?

Speakers:

Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

In conversation with Amy Celico, Principal, Albright Stonebridge Group; former Senior Director for China Affairs, Office of the US Trade Representative
13 Comments
 Auggie Giuseppe
Add a public comment...
Y Liu
Y Liu
2 months ago (edited)
1. Graham has never been in China, according to his confession here. That means he knows very few about China. His "Thucydides Trap" in the world would be his one-side imagination. 2. Since long there has been no internal political consensus between the American population, parties and elites because of clear USA economical decline, except their arrogant religious political correctness. 3. USA could not play the positive or constructive role in the world, rather as a trouble maker because its decision making would be seriously influenced by its interests groups. Otherwise, there would be no 13 wars after WWII. 4. No matter how strong USA would be, same time fighting with Russia and China means that USA has lost its game from the beginning.
Conclusion: USA has been falling its own trap, which has been created by USA itself, and now the trap would become bigger and deeper if USA don't have its own political structure reform. USA's main enemy is itself, neither China, nor Russia, nor any other country.

4


Jesus Gonzalez
Jesus Gonzalez
4 months ago
if USA going down and China takes over, I don't think the whole world will be very happy, now I don't see the whole world listening to Chinese music, movies,banquet ball,base ball, Chinese Elvis Presley, Chinese Madonna, etc.etc.so please USA don't alow China to copy everything and soon be the owner's of America.

1


Y Liu
Y Liu
2 months ago (edited)
Yes, there are many vital main common interests between USA, China and Russia. Why we spend so much resources for conflicts with each other?



Johney Smith
Johney Smith
2 months ago
I really like the interviewer Amy. She is a good listener, but when talks, she sounds so respectful with brilliant thoughts.



Winson Han
Winson Han
4 months ago
The time has come but it is not easy for the US to believe that it is on a decline let alone accept such an eventuality.



srd xxx
srd xxx
5 months ago
The Thucydides Trap is an interesting concept, but the rest of Allison's argument assumes US declinism and China Bullism.



Dalibor Bartoš
Dalibor Bartoš
5 months ago
the talk is just mapping the behavior of the competitor as in oligopoly .. the political situation we have right now in the world is a oligopolistic one........three powers existing and fourth one coming to being.EU.....USA has its OWN army, China has its OWN army and , fo course, Russia has its OWN army, ONLY EU does not have its OWN army....The EU is really in the process of becoming a power, the other three are already powers, only equipped with different strength of thier power, USA being the strongest stil now. But in the future China is going to be the power number ONE unless the other three get joined into one under the leadership of Europe..........and afterwards comes only one reasonable solution, one planetary government......or the unreasonable one........ a huge war destroying all the humans or nearly all humans........